Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.230010 1.296324 1.365089 1.441878 1.525426 1.613786 1.714578
2025-12-21 1.121534 1.214368 1.314719 1.431859 1.565620 1.714530 1.894165
2025-12-28 1.065077 1.175140 1.297655 1.445328 1.620122 1.822514 2.077725
2026-01-04 1.008984 1.129118 1.265850 1.434804 1.640544 1.886455 2.208165
2026-01-11 0.976482 1.106668 1.257844 1.448939 1.687881 1.982231 2.381353
2026-01-18 0.942675 1.079752 1.241648 1.450312 1.717291 2.055091 2.528223
2026-01-25 0.924962 1.070569 1.245442 1.475265 1.776270 2.167794 2.735284
2026-02-01 0.885082 1.031932 1.210390 1.448204 1.764975 2.185439 2.810673
2026-02-08 0.843690 0.989524 1.168459 1.409644 1.735428 2.175267 2.843725
2026-02-15 0.817313 0.964802 1.147679 1.397293 1.739752 2.211025 2.945304
2026-02-22 0.798616 0.948949 1.137363 1.397884 1.761138 2.271192 3.087349
2026-03-01 0.773888 0.924374 1.114598 1.380367 1.755825 2.291778 3.168588
2026-03-08 0.744339 0.893359 1.083223 1.351062 1.734118 2.289515 3.217662
2026-03-15 0.724386 0.874273 1.067005 1.341984 1.741004 2.330437 3.341195
2026-03-22 0.713894 0.867140 1.066292 1.354187 1.779122 2.420890 3.556243
2026-03-29 0.696152 0.849710 1.050884 1.344652 1.784017 2.459207 3.683801
2026-04-05 0.687478 0.844060 1.051211 1.357458 1.822987 2.554043 3.922500
2026-04-12 0.675331 0.833266 1.043946 1.358701 1.843911 2.620408 4.115309
2026-04-19 0.671030 0.832942 1.051116 1.381290 1.899156 2.747761 4.441154
2026-04-26 0.651596 0.811246 1.027458 1.356792 1.877902 2.742259 4.499695
2026-05-03 0.629699 0.785632 0.997559 1.321844 1.838168 2.702030 4.482292
2026-05-10 0.616300 0.771503 0.983639 1.310641 1.836557 2.728961 4.609320
2026-05-17 0.607166 0.763073 0.977601 1.311177 1.854135 2.791205 4.819903